NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 1

NFL Picks Against The Spread


Here we go people. The Hall of Fame game is upon us. Which means the degenerate in all of us is ready to burst out and win some cash. The only problem is making NFL picks against the spread is one of the toughest ways to win money in the betting world. To make matters worse week one is one of the hardest weeks to win. With the player turnover in this league there’s always going to be a team who resemble nothing from the previous season. If you’re not careful you could be down a bunch heading in week 2. A quick look at last year’s week 1.

Straight Up11-5
Against the Spread9-7
Straight Up10-6
Against the Spread8-8
WagerTotals (O/U)


Ok the title is misleading, we arent picking week 1 games… yet. But, Let’s look at this year’s weak 1 and give reasons why each team will cover the spread and win you some money.


Week 1 Thursday Sep 8, 2016
8:30 PMRecordLineBetting Trend
Carolina(0-0) (0-0 A)-1-349%70%7%
Denver(0-0) (0-0 H)444351%30%93%

Reasons the Panthers will cover

  1. The Panthers averaged 31 points a game last season. That was without their best receiver. Kelvin Benjamin is a beast and the Panthers receiving corps looks much better with Benjamin as the 1 than that pile of crap Cam got away with last year.
  2. Mark Sanchez or Paxton Lynch. The Panthers don’t care. Play them both! The Panthers front 7 is elite and they are making bets for who gets the most sacks, forced fumbles and picks. The Broncos won’t have Manning back there reading blitzes. Sanchez will be walking off the field a lot with his patented look of his head hanging, hands on helmet.

Reasons the Broncos will cover

  1. Denver has opened the season at home the last 4 years. Going 4-0 Straight Up and 3-1 ATS. This opening night crowd will be more jacked than usual after watching their 3rd banner raised. They will remind The Panthers players who they won that banner off all night.
  2. The Broncos are returning almost the entire defense that was sick last year. In their 10 home games last season (including the postseason) they allowed 20 points or less 9 times. They only allowed over 20 once, a 30-24 win against the Patriots. This Super Bowl D may get Cam to leave his interview early again.
Week 1 Sunday Sep 11, 2016
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Tampa Bay(0-0) (0-0 A)47.547.514%79%20%
Atlanta(0-0) (0-0 H)-3-386%21%80%

Reasons the Bucs will cover

  1. Famous Jameis Beat Atlanta twice last season and the Bucs wish he could play all 16 games agianst them. A more confident Winston chucking the ball to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson will be a problem for Atlana’s awful secondary.
  2. The Bucs running back combination of Doug Martin and Charles Sims are one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL and should find wide open running lanes against the Falcons. So what we’re really saying is the Bucs will cover because Atlanta’s whole defense stinks.

Reasons the Falcons will cover

  1. Atlanta’s receiving corps were not very good last year even though Julio Jones is not from this planet. Out is Roddy White and Devin Hester, In is Mohamed Sanu who could have a breakout season. Throw in Jacob Tamme at tight end and The Falcons have some weapons to pick on The Bucs young secondary.
  2. Atlanta’s offensive line is really good, and with the running back combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman look for them to gash Tampa’s weak front 7.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Minnesota(0-0) (0-0 A)-3-377%48%8%
Tennessee(0-0) (0-0 H)42.54223%52%92%

Reasons the Vikings will cover

  1. Minnesota’s offensive weapons of Adrian Peterson, Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph could make the Titans D look like a joke….. IF Teddy doesn’t screw it up.
  2. The Vikings defense was NASTY last year. I mean NASTY (Anthony Barr may snap and punch someone every play) They only allowed over 20 points 3 times last season. They return everybody. they are young, lightning quick and hungry. Bad combination for the Titans.

Reasons the Titans will cover

  1. The Titans have upgraded their running back position in a big way with Demarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry. They may be able to take some heat off Marcus Mariota and hopefully control the clock. Probably not, but maybe.
  2. Teddy Bridgewater is getting better and better but still has an awful game here and there. If the Titans can put pressure on him he may start hitting the Titan secondary in the numbers for short fields and easy points.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Cleveland(0-0) (0-0 A)45.043.541%96%0%
Philadelphia(0-0) (0-0 H)-7.5-6.559%4%100%

Reasons the Browns will cover

  1. Robert Griffin has something to prove and he needs to prove it quickly. The Browns are not on a 3 year plan. He has young explosive talent around him with second year running back Duke Johnson and rookie wideout Corey Coleman. Griffen should play it safe with short passes because the Eagles have secondary players looking to score touchdowns in Malcolm Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin, and Rodney McLeod
  2. Philadelphia’s skill position players are probably the worst in the league. Sam Bradford, Ryan Mathews, Nelson Agholor, Jordan Mathews and Rueben Randle wouldn’t scare an SEC defense. The Browns could keep it low scoring and cover the 6.5 points.

Reasons the Eagles will cover

  1. Philly may be awful at skill positions but they have a very good offensive line and an above average defense. Both good things to have when playing a mediocre team at  home.
  2. Cleveland’s defense just looks AWFUL. Front 7 looks bad and besides Joe Haden there’s not much in the secondary either. If the Eagles are going to break the 24 point mark this year here’s their chance.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Cincinnati(0-0) (0-0 A)PK-289%95%79%
N.Y. Jets(0-0) (0-0 H)42.54211%5%21%

Reasons the Bengals will cover

  1. The Bengals have a top 5 offense and are dangerous everywhere. A healthy Dalton, Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, A.J. Green and Tyler Eiffert can light it up on anyone. Combine them with one of the leagues best offensive lines and it may be too much for the Jets defense.
  2. The Bengals secondary is good. They return most of the unit from last year and drafted Darqueze Dennard in the first round. On the other hand The Jets decided to give in and pay 12 million dollars to a man who is 16-61 in his career when his defense gives up more than 17 points. 16-61!!! The Bengals can’t wait to remind the Jets their QB search isn’t over.

Reasons the Jets will cover

  1. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were really good last year. They made everyone believe the Jets were actually good when they weren’t. However, plan on those 2 guys being really good again. Add to the fact the Jets tight ends did nothing last year and the return of pass catching tight end Jace Amore (who missed all of last season) should give the top 2 wideouts even more space.
  2. The Jets Defense is top 10 on paper. They are capable of shutting down any offense in the league. Sheldon Richardson’s 1 game suspension for doing everything in his power to go to prison, including driving 143 mph while fleeing police WITH a child AND a gun in the car…. definitely won’t help.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Oakland(0-0) (0-0 A)PK50.562%56%88%
New Orleans(0-0) (0-0 H)50.5-138%44%12%

Reasons the Raiders will cover

  1. The Raiders are ready to take that next step this season. Derrick Carr is the real deal. Throw in Amare Cooper, Michael Crabtree and what many are saying may be the best O line in football and this offensive is going to make Raider fan think it’s the year 200o again.
  2. Speaking of next step, the Raiders defense has the potential to be great. With the Saints offensive roster being so depleted due to not knowing how the salary cap works, the Raiders defense could control this game.

Reasons the Saints will cover

  1. Drew Brees is still a top level QB, Mark Ingram has lots of potential and the Saints offensive line is very good. They are still capable of scoring some points.
  2. Even though the Saints aren’t as good at home as they were a few years ago it’s still a tough place to play. Especially on opening day with a lubed up crowd screaming “Who DAT” for 60 minutes. The crowd will definitely be loud and on their game, Can the young Raiders block out the noise?
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
San Diego(0-0) (0-0 A)43.04336%89%0%
Kansas City(0-0) (0-0 H)-7.5-764%11%0%

Reasons the Chargers will cover

  1. Phillip Rivers may be 2 kids away from fielding his own football team but he is still young and good enough to chuck it with the best of them. He also has a dangerous receiving corp with Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin and Antonio Gates. They have the potential to score from anywhere.
  2. Alex Smith doesn’t frighten anyone, except maybe the dreams of Scot McCloughan (the 49ers GM who picked him over Aaron Rodgers) and besides Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce there are no real weapons in the passing game. If San Diego can make the Chiefs drive 80 yards all game they can keep the score relatively low.

Reasons the Chiefs will cover

  1. Jamaal Charles is back! Yes, he is now 29 and coming off his second career ACL injury but the Chiefs are confident he is still a pro bowler. Now they also have the comfort of 2 proven backs (Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware) who did fantastic when Charles went down last year. The Chargers front 7 is bad and could get ripped apart by the Chiefs running game.
  2. DEFENSE! The Chiefs had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season and return almost everybody. A great defense at crazy, loud Arrowhead is a recipe for success.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Buffalo(0-0) (0-0 A)444319%55%100%
Baltimore(0-0) (0-0 H)-3-381%45%0%

Reasons the Bills will cover

  1. The Bills have the potential to have one of the best running attacks in the league. LeSaun McCoy wasn’t healthy last year but he will be in this game. Tyrod Taylor is dangerous running and Reggie Bush can still do damage. The Bills could run for 250+ yards in this game behind an underrated offensive line.
  2. The Bills secondary is crazy good, the Ravens receivers are horseshit after Steve Smith. The Ravens having trouble throwing the football could be an understatement.

Reasons the Ravens will cover

  1. The Ravens offensive line is above average and the Bills defensive line has question marks. The Ravens may be able to control the clock. 
  2. The Ravens secondary was weak last season. It has the potential to be a strength this season. Eric Weddle still has a lot in the tank even though he cut his awesome beard. He should team with Lardarius Webb to form one the best safety combinations. They have a pro bowl level corner in Jimmy Smith. This unit can give the Bills passing game trouble especially if no one shows up besides Sammy Watkins.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Chicago(0-0) (0-0 A)44.54435%98%73%
Houston(0-0) (0-0 H)-4.5-465%2%27%

Reasons the Bears will cover

  1. The Bears front 7 should be one of the few bright spots and should give Brock Osweiler trouble. Anyone believe Osweiler is a top QB? He should struggle early.
  2. Jay Cutler can still show flashes and Alshon Jefferey and Kevin White could be a formidable duo. The passing game has the potential to breakout on anyone with those 2 freaks running around.

Reasons the Texans will cover

  1. Lamar Miller was really good behind a bad Dolphins offensive line last season. This year he will be behind a very good Texans line. He should have a career year starting in game 1.
  2. The Texans will live and die behind their Defense this season which will be very good. Could be great if Jadeveon Clowney ever plays like an overall number 1 pick and not a player who has 47 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 2 seasons. The front 7 could decimate a shoddy Bears offensive line.
1:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Green Bay(0-0) (0-0 A)-4.5-4.586%84%99%
Jacksonville(0-0) (0-0 H)47.54714%16%1%

Reasons the Packers will cover

  1. They have the Best Quarterback in the World, we could stop there but we won’t. They also have a new and improved Eddie Lacy, return Jordy Nelson to go with Randle Cobb/Davante Adams and have one of the best lines in football. This offense has Super Bowl written all over it. Jags D will struggle to contain it.
  2. Not too many secondaries will be able to compete with the Jags passing game. The Packers Secondary could be one of the few. They have playmakers on the back end and have the potential to be great.

Reasons the Jaguars will cover

  1. When is the last time you heard this….. Explosive Jaguar offense? Not since Mark Brunnel was lightning up the Dolphins 62 -7 in Dan Marino’s last game. This unit could be one of the best in football. They have a top 5 backfield combo with Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon. A top 5 receiving corps with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas. A QB ready to take the next step. If the O line can hold up this team can score with anyone.
  2. In this day in age, free agency makes it virtually impossible for every unit to be good. The Packers front 7 leaves much to be desired. Lots of big names with a TON of miles. They look old on paper. Can’t expect everyone to turn back the clock. Jags could run the ball on this team.
4:05 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Miami(0-0) (0-0 A)444419%94%0%
Seattle(0-0) (0-0 H)-7.5-9.581%6%100%

Reasons the Dolphins will cover

  1. The Seahawks offensive line is AWFUL. Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams and Kiko Alonso could be in the backfield all game. Which will be a good thing as long as they can bring Wilson to the ground.
  2. Miami doesn’t have the best secondary in the league but with what should be a ferocious pass rush they don’t have to be. The Seahawk receiving corps is good but by no means great. The Defense could keep it close.

Reasons the Seahawks will cover

  1. Russell Wilson and Thomas Rawls should be able to find open running lanes all day. I mean ALL DAY. The Dolphins front 7 may make Seahawk fans forget Marshawn for a day.
  2. This Seahawks defense is still top 5 and could hold the Dolphins offense to 10 points or less. Shutout anyone?


4:25 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
N.Y. Giants(0-0) (0-0 A)494941%78%99%
Dallas(0-0) (0-0 H)-4-3.559%22%1%

Reasons the Giants will cover

  1. Tony Romo’s glass shoulder and fat belly aren’t the only question marks for Dallas. The defense is a BIG question mark. The Giants offense is by no means great but they have good players. The Giant receivers should be open all day against an awful Cowboy secondary.
  2. The Cowboys have more injuries and suspensions up front than able players. They should get better as the season moves on but that won’t help them in this game.

Reasons the Cowboys will cover

  1. Best offensive line in football and Ezekial Elliot should make the Cowboys running game the best in football. They will look to smack the Giants in the mouth.
  2. The return of Tony Romo will give this team a shot in the arm after the parade of terrible quarterbacks who played in his place last season. Romo will be ready in game 1 to prove he’s healthy and still a top 10 QB.
4:25 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Detroit(0-0) (0-0 A)49.54919%98%47%
Indianapolis(0-0) (0-0 H)-6-581%2%53%

Reasons the Lions will cover

  1. One of the major strengths of the Lions is their front 7. One of the big weaknesses of the Colts is the running game. Frank Gore is 33 and could be out of gas. The Lions should be able to make the Colts one dimensional and unleash the pass rush.
  2. Mathew Stafford isn’t great, he’s good. The receivers aren’t great, they’re good. Besides Vontae Davis the Colts secondary doesn’t look very good. The Lions could have some open receivers and tons of yards after the catch.

Reasons the Colts will cover

  1. The Colts have Andrew Luck who is out to prove last year was an aberration and he didn’t all of a sudden forget how to win. He will be protected by a decent offensive line. This Colts offense (especially T.Y. Hilton) is still dangerous especially against a suspect Lions secondary.
  2. The Lions Offensive line leaves much to be desired. It will be a loud rowdy crowd in that dome. The Lions line could struggle. The Colts hold the advantage up front on that side of the ball.
8:30 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
New England(0-0) (0-0 A)-14833%47%0%
Arizona(0-0) (0-0 H)51-5.567%53%100%

Reasons the Patriots will cover

  1. Even without Brady this receiving corps is one of the best in the league. Even though Arizona’s secondary has an elite secondary NO ONE can cover The Gronk. NO ONE.
  2. Belichek is still the best coach in the league and he’s had months to find weaknesses. I’m sure he’s realized that the running game on both sides of the ball will be his key. Pats should be able to run on Arizona and stop their running game on defense.

Reasons the Cardinals will cover

  1. If Tom Brady were playing, the Cardinals are still good enough to beat the Pats at home. He’s not, you couldn’t find Garoppolo a tougher opener if you hand picked a team.
  2. Arizona has an elite passing game and an elite secondary. In this pass happy NFL that leads to a ton of covers.
Week 1 Monday Sep 12, 2016
7:10 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Pittsburgh(0-0) (0-0 A)-3-375%66%94%
Washington(0-0) (0-0 H)50.55025%34%6%

Reasons the Steelers will cover

  1. Even if Le’veon Bell doesn’t play the Steelers running game could and should run roughshod over the Redskins front 7. The Redskins aren’t very good up front, especially against the run. The Steelers O line should control the trenches.
  2. The Steelers secondary is a mystery and definitely has holes. The good news for them in this game is Washington’s run game could be awful which will make the Redskins one dimensional.

Reasons the Redskins will cover

  1. Above I said “hopefully’ because this receiving corps looks scary. DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed were already a formidable bunch. Then they went and drafted Josh Doctson with their first round pick….. SCARY and SICK!
  2. Pittsburgh for our money has the best receiver in football. The only problem is Martavis Bryant’s love of bong hits has gotten him a 1 year suspension. The Redskins secondary is really good and Bryant’s lack of clean urine just made their job a helluva lot easier.
10:20 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
Los Angeles(0-0) (0-0 A)-1-270%10%0%
San Francisco(0-0) (0-0 H)45.54630%90%100%

Reasons the Rams will cover

  1. The Rams front 7 is still really, really, REALLY good. They could very easily control this game from start to finish.
  2. Remember when San Fran had the most feared front 7 in football? Feels like a freakin decade ago. This years version is not very good. Rams running back Todd Gurley is the opposite…. He is VERY good. Gurley can score on any play from anywhere.

Reasons the 49ers will cover

  1. Jared Goff is not only making his NFL debut on Monday night football in hostile territory, he’s making his debut with a garbage receiving corps. WHO THE HELL IS HE GOING TO THROW THE BALL TO? San Fran’s secondary must be salivating. 
  2. Speaking of salivating. Colin Kapearnick is also salivating. You may think we’re insane but he will be fired up and ready to make his last stand as a starting QB in this league. To help him out will be the Rams secondary. Did every member of the secondary bolt in free agency? Now or never Kap.

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