NBA Stats To Study Before Betting

NBA Stats To Study Before Betting

When it comes to NBA betting the public is always looking for an angle or advantage against the books. Betting on the NBA is one of the hardest things to do in sports. If you’re betting solely by the teams records than you probably aren’t doing too well. Some of the best teams in the NBA usually have a terrible record against the spread. The books know the public loves betting on the best teams without even caring about matchups so they inflate the lines against the public. The Cavaliers are a notorious example. The public just loves betting on Lebron James despite the fact they are awful against the spread. Let’s look at 3 stats that you should study before you bet. They just may help you win more games.

Average Scoring Margin

When looking for stat that can definitely help you win games look no further than average scoring margin. It’s a very simple and often overlooked stat. Average scoring margin for those who don’t know is point differential, points you score compared to points you give up. Since the start of the 2013 season the top 5 teams in scoring margin each season (15 in all) have gone 793-674 against the spread, which comes to a win percentage of 54%. The teams in the bottom 5 each season is more eye opening. Since 2013 the bottom 5 teams have combined to gone a dismal 544-686 against the spread, a terrible win percentage of 44%. So look out for teams like the Clippers, Warriors, Hawks and Bulls who have gotten off to great starts in scoring margins. Look to fade teams like the Mavericks, Magic, and Suns.

Scoring Defense

The NBA is so popular because of its offensive stars. Nobody talks about defense when it comes to the NBA. Well if you’re a bettor you should probably start to pay more attention to scoring defense. If you can’t keep teams from scoring your chances of covering the spread goes way down. The combined records of the bottom 5 teams in scoring defense the last 3 years was 545-685, a win percentage of 44%. Phoenix, Portland and Washington are teams to watch for potential fades.

Assist/Turnover Ratio

Another one of those stats that bettors overlook is assist to turnover ratio. It’s pretty simple actually. If your team has a lot of assists it means your scoring a bunch. If your team doesn’t turn the ball over that means more possessions and scoring chances. The 15 teams who finished in the top 5 of assists to turnover ratio in the last 3 years went a combined 778-612 against the spread. That’s a whooping 56%. What really made this stat interesting was 4 of those 15 teams didn’t even make the playoffs but all 4 finished above 52% ATS. The Clippers, Hornets, Hawks and Spurs are teams to watch in this category.

There are many different things people look at before placing a bet on an NBA game. I’m willing to bet a lot of you rarely if ever look at these 3 stats before placing your bets. Well the next time you want to place a bet compare the Assist/Turnover ratio between the teams before you place it. It might be the difference between winning and losing.

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