2017 NFL Win Totals (Over/Unders) and Past Results

2017 NFL Win Totals Over/Unders and Tips Before Betting

Now that the NFL Draft is complete, most big name free agents have found homes and there is a about 100 days until the season starts it’s time to take our first look at the 2017 NFL totals for each team and give you a few tips before you make your picks. Win totals are undervalued by the NFL betting public as a great way to make some serious money. Bettors actually have a better chance to predict what a team will do over the entire 16 game schedule than they do week to week against the spread. There is tons of information out there on each teams roster and direction they are taking, if you ad that with how little time is needed to pour over each teams schedule compared to the other 3 major sports and you have a real chance to nail some totals. Before we take a look at the win 2017 NFL Win Totals and give you some tips let’s look at the win total predictions and results from the last 2 seasons.

Win Totals and Results Last 2 Seasons

2017 NFL Win Totals

1. QUARTERBACK: The most important position in the NFL is obviously the most important position to look at when picking your season win totals. Some say the QB position is responsible for anywhere between 2-5 wins per season depending on who you have. A perfect example is the 2016 Denver Broncos. After coming off a 12 win season and Super Bowl win the Broncos lost Peyton Manning. The public crushed the Over on the 9 wins Vegas set thinking it was easy money and the rest of the team was so good it didn’t matter the QB. With Trevor Siemian as the starter the team lost 3 more games than 2015 and missed the playoffs.

2. Compare last season’s schedule to this season: The main reason to compare schedules is with the changing landscape of the NFL every season a team may get lucky one year with weaker cross divisional games only to get screwed the next. The AFC South had an extremely tough schedule last season playing against the AFC West and NFC North. This season they will get a scheduling break with the AFC North and NFC West. The difference in those schedules could be worth +2 wins.

3. Don’t fall in love with last years playoff teams: Most people who bet win totals start with the perceived better teams and go from there. It’s really easy to get caught up in the trap of looking at the playoff teams from a year ago and just expecting them to repeat that success the next season. The NFL is not set up that way though. Besides the New England Patriots, it’s very difficult for teams to stay on top of their divisions and make the playoffs year after year. On average half the teams that make the playoffs one year will miss them the next. What does that mean? That means out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2016, 6 of them have a very good chance to go UNDER the win total the next season.

4. Look over the roster for all changes. The player turnover from year to year is immense with the average tenure in the NFL being a little over 2 seasons according to Pro Football reference. Between the draft, free agency, player cuts, player retirements etc the average roster has about a 25 percent turnover every year. That’s about 13 players. No team is ever the same from one season to the next so you have to check position depth, especially the offensive skill positions and the front 7 on defense.

5. Coaching Changes. This one should be pretty obvious but many people forget to take it into account or simply don’t think it’s important. When there is a head coaching change it’s usually a bad team who is about to have a big shift in philosophy.

Check Back For RideTheHotHand’s 2017 Win Total Predictions For Each Team

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