NFL Records with Short and Long Rest

Every fall weekend you can turn on any one of the pregame shows and hear the talking heads previewing games and using terms like “playing on short rest” or “should be fresh coming off the bye week”. Now because of Thursday night games we’re also starting to get this one “They are benefiting coming off a mini bye week after playing last Thursday” The public has been trained to think that teams coming into a game with extra rest have an advantage and teams coming into a game on short rest have a disadvantage. It only makes sense right? In a physically demanding game like pro football a team that has more time to recover and rest their bodies have to have the advantage right? We are using this summer to go through different NFL betting scenarios and seeing what are recent trends so we can all have the most profitable fall betting season ever. We decided to go back the last three years (2014-2016) and look at three different scenarios.

  1. Team records straight up and against the spread after their bye week.
  2. Team records straight up and against the spread after a Thursday night game.
  3. Team records straight up and against the spread on short rest following a Monday Night Game.

NFL “experts” on TV, radio and the internet have made us believe that it is common sense that teams on long rest have a better chance in their upcoming game and teams that played on Monday Night and have only five days rest will have a tough time. Obviously no one in their right mind would believe that just because you have longer rest you will automatically win the game, but the recurring theme is teams have better records with extra rest.

The first two scenarios where the teams have longer rest we found out they have a record at or below .500 in their next game. The playing on short rest scenario that a team won’t fare as well due to only having five days off was proven true in the last few seasons as they were way below .500

  1. The last three seasons, teams coming off a bye week have a straight up record of 48-48 (50%) and against the spread record of 49-47 (51%)
  2. The last three seasons, teams coming off a Thursday Night game have a straight up record of 47-55 (46%) and against the spread record of 48-53-1 (47%)
  3. The last three seasons, teams playing on short rest after a Monday Night game have gone 43-50-1 (46%) straight up the next week and 41-55 (43%) against the spread.

Football is a game of routine. Monday after a game you watch film, get treatment and lift weights. Tuesday is usually an off day followed by introducing the game plan on Wednesday. Another full practice on Thursday with travel days and a walk through the rest of the week. It seems when this routine is thrown off even by a day it reduces your chance for a win the following week. Extra rest is no different. Maybe getting away football during the season is not always a good idea. So this 2017 season when the lines come out each week make sure to look back and see if either team is on short or long rest. Below are team by team records on short and long rest from 2014-2016.

TeamAfter Bye W-LAfter Thur W-LMon Night Short Rest W-L
Arizona2-1. 1-2 ATS3-1. 3-1 ATS2-0-1. 2-1 ATS
Atlanta2-1. 1-2 ATS1-2. 0-3 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS
Baltimore2-1. 2-1 ATS1-2. 1-2 ATS2-2. 1-3 ATS
Buffalo2-1. 1-1 ATS2-1. 2-0-1 ATS0-1. 0-1 ATS
Carolina2-1. 2-1 ATS2-2. 3-1 ATS1-3. 2-2 ATS
Chicago0-3 .0-3 ATS1-3. 1-3 ATS1-3. 2-2 ATS
Cincinnati1-2. 1-2 ATS1-2. 1-2 ATS1-3. 1-3 ATS
Cleveland1-2. 1-2 ATS0-3. 0-3 ATS1-1. 1-1 ATS
Dallas2-1. 1-2 ATS4-0. 3-1 ATS0-3. 0-3 ATS
Denver2-1. 2-1 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS3-0. 2-1 ATS
Detroit3-0. 3-0 ATS3-1. 2-2 ATS1-3. 1-3 ATS
Green Bay2-1. 2-1 ATS4-1. 4-0-1 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS
Houston3-0. 3-0 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS3-1. 3-1 ATS
Indianapolis2-1. 2-1 ATS3-0. 3-0 ATS3-1. 2-2 ATS
Jacksonville1-2. 1-2 ATS0-3. 12 ATSN/A
Kansas City3-0. 3-0 ATS0-3. 0-3 ATS0-2. 0-2 ATS
Los Angeles2-1. 2-1 ATS0-3. 1-2 ATS2-0. 2-0 ATS
Miami2-1. 2-1 ATS0-3. 1-2 ATS0-2. 0-2 ATS
Minnesota1-2. 1-2 ATS1-2. 2-1 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS
New England2-1. 2-1 ATS3-1. 3-1 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS
New Orleans1-2. 2-1 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS3-1. 3-1 ATS
New York Giants1-2. 1-2 ATS3-0. 3-0 ATS2-4. 2-4 ATS
New York Jets1-2. 1-2 ATS1-2. 0-3 ATS2-3. 2-3 ATS
Oakland2-1. 3-0 ATS1-2. 2-1 ATS1-0 0-1 ATS
Philadelphia1-2. 1-2 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS2-4. 1-5 ATS
Pittsburgh0-3. 0-3 ATS4-0. 4-0 ATS3-0. 3-0 ATS
San Diego2-1. 1-2 ATS2-1. 2-1 ATS1-1. 2-0 ATS
San Francisco0-3. 0-3 ATS0-3. 0-3 ATS0-3. 0-3 ATS
Seattle1-1. 1-1 ATS2-2. 1-3 ATS1-2. 1-2 ATS
Tampa Bay1-2. 2-1 ATS1-1. 1-1 ATSN/A
Tennessee1-2. 1-2 ATS0-3. 0-3 ATS0-1. 0-1 ATS
Washington1-2. 1-2 ATS1-2. 1-2 ATS2-3. 2-3 ATS
Totals48-48 SU 49-47 ATS47-55 SU 48-53-1 ATS43-50-1 SU 41-55 ATS