NFL Short Odds vs Money Line

As the 2018 NFL season gets closer and closer we have already started researching ways to make the 2018 NFL season our biggest moneymaker yet. We decided to research if we were losing money by betting on small point spreads (1 or 1.5) instead of betting the money line. The main question we had was how many times does a game that had a line of 1 or 1.5 finish as a 1 point win resulting in a push or how often a team won the game but didn’t cover as -1.5 favorite? There were other questions to be answered as well. How much money have we left on the table by betting these small point spreads instead of the money line? Meaning how many of these +1 or +1.5 dogs actually lose by just 1 point. We researched all regular season games the last 7 years where the lines closed at -1 or -1.5 and the closing money line also. The answers to some of these questions may surprise you.

  • In the last 7 years, 97 games were listed at -1. The favorites were 48-44-5 ATS. The favorites were 53-44 on the money line. The Underdogs were 44-53
  • 39 of the 48 favorites who won, beat their opponent by more than 3 points.
  • 36 of the 44 underdog winners won by more than 3 points.
  • In the last 7 years, 52 games were listed at -1.5. The Favorites were 26-26 ATS.
  • There wasn’t one instance where a -1.5 favorite won the game by 1, therefore not covering.
  • There wasn’t one instance where a +1.5 dog lost the game by 1 point. Meaning there was no benefit of having the spread bet over the money line in these situations.
  • The money line on those 26 underdog winners would have netted an average of $15 extra per $100 bet.

In conclusion, we feel it is way more beneficial that if you’re going to take an underdog at +1 or +1.5 it’s wise to just take the money line, especially +1.5 since there’s no chance for a push. If you win that’s more money in your pocket and if you lose you’ll save money on the vig. Pushes while getting +1 is rare enough that taking the money line and losing by 1 point is unlikely enough that we would consider it equal to any other bad beat. Below you’ll find every game in the last 7 years with a closing line of 1 or 1.5, Who covered, straight up winner and score. You may even find a game you bet on and can look for yourself the difference the money line makes.

 

2011 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1134-9-09
-1.585-3-03

2011 Game by Game (ATS Winner in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Baltimore -1 (-125) vs Pittsburgh (+105)Baltimore35-7
1Tampa Bay -1.5 (-125) vs Detroit (+110)Detroit 27-20
1Tennessee -1 (-120) vs Jacksonville (100)Jacksonville16-14
1New York Giants -1 (-120) vs Wash (100)Washington28-14
2Minnesota -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (+100)Tampa Bay24-20
2Cleveland -1.5 (-125) vs Indianapolis (+105)Cleveland27-19
3Cincinnati -1 (-120) vs San Fran (100)San Fran13-8
3Tampa Bay -1 (120) vs Atlanta (100)Tampa Bay16-13
4Cleveland -1.5 (-125) vs Tennessee (+110)Tennessee31-13
4New York Giants -1.5 (-120) vs Arizona (100)NYG31-27
5Indianapolis -1.5 (-125) vs Kansas City (+110)Kansas City28-24
7Chicago -1.5 (-125) vs Tampa Bay (+105)Chicago24-18
7San Diego -1 (-120) vs New York Jets (100)NYJ27-21
7Denver -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Denver18-15
8Cincinnati -1.5 (-125) vs Seattle (+105)Cincinnati34-12
9Arizona -1 (-120) vs St. Louis (100)Arizona19-13
10Atlanta -1 (-120) vs New Orleans (100)New Orleans26-23
11Cleveland -1.5 (-125) vs Jacksonville (+105)Cleveland14-10
13Buffalo -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Tennessee23-17
13Minnesota -1 (-120) vs Denver (100)Denver35-32
15Baltimore -1 (-120) vs San Diego (100)San Diego34-14

2012 By The Numbers (ATS Winner in Bold)

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1114-6-17
-1.571-6-06

2012 Game By Game

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Oakland -1 (-120) vs San Diego (100)San Diego22-14
2Oakland -1.5 (-130) vs Miami (+110)Miami35-13
5Arizona -1.5 (-125) vs St. Louis (+115)St. Louis17-3
6Cincinnati -1.5 (-130) vs Cleveland (+115)Cleveland34-24
7Indianapolis -1 (-120) vs Cleveland (100)Indianapolis17-13
7Pittsburgh -1.5 (-125) vs Cincinnati (+110)Pittsburgh24-17
8New York Jets -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Miami30-9
8 Kansas City -1 (-120) vs Oakland (100)Oakland26-16
9Oakland -1.5 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (+110)Tampa Bay42-32
10Chicago -1 (-120) vs Houston (100)Houston13-6
11Tampa Bay -1 (-120) vs Carolina (100)Tampa Bay27-21
12Pittsburgh -1 (-120) vs Cleveland (100)Cleveland20-14
12Atlanta -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (100)Atlanta24-23(PUSH)
12Baltimore -1 (-120) vs San Diego (100)Baltimore16-13
12Arizona -1.5 (-125) vs St Louis (+110)St. Louis31-17
14 Chicago -1.5 (-125) vs Minnesota (+120)Minnesota21-14
15Atlanta -1 (-120) vs New York Giants (100)Atlanta34-0
15New York Jets -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Tennessee14-10

2013 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-11511-4-04
-1.575-2-02

2013 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
3Baltimore -1 (-120) vs Houston (100)Baltimore30-9
3Detroit -1 (-120) vs Washington (100)Detroit27-20
4Seattle -1.5 (-125) vs Houston (+105)Seattle23-20
5New Orleans -1 (-120) vs Chicago (100)New Orleans26-18
5Philadelphia -1 (-125) vs New York Giants (+105)Philadelphia36-21
6Pittsburgh -1.5 (-125) vs New York Jets (+105)Pittsburgh19-6
6Indianapolis -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)San Diego19-9
7Chicago -1 (-120) vs Washington (100)Washington45-41
9Washington -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)Washington30-24
9Oakland -1 (-120) vs Philadelphia (100)Philadelphia49-20
9Baltimore -1.5 (-130) vs Cleveland (110)Cleveland24-18
10Philadelphia -1 (-120) vs Green Bay (100)Philadelphia27-13
10Baltimore -1 (-120) vs Cincinnati (100)Baltimore20-17
10Detroit -1 (-120) vs Chicago (100)Detroit21-19
12Denver -1 (-120) vs New England (100)New England34-31
13Minnesota -1 (-120) vs Chicago (100)Minnesota23-20
13Wash -1 (-120) vs New York Giants (100)New York Giants24-17
14Chicago -1.5 (-125) vs Dallas (+105)Chicago45-28
15Chicago -1 (-115) vs Cleveland (-105)Chicago38-31
16Buffalo -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Buffalo19-0
16Pittsburgh -1 (-120) vs Green Bay (100)Pittsburgh38-31
16New England -1 (-120) vs Baltimore (100)New England41-7

2014 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-172-4-14
-1.5123-99

2014 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Baltimore -1 (-115) vs Cincinnati (-105)Cincinnati23-16
2Carolina -1.5 (-120) vs Detroit (100)Carolina24-7
2Buffalo -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Buffalo29-10
3New York Giants -1 (-120) vs Houston (100)NYG30-17
3New York Jets -1.5 (-120) vs Chicago (+110)Chicago27-19
4New York Jets -1.5 (-120) vs Detroit (+115)Detroit24-17
5Cleveland -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Cleveland29-28(PUSH)
6Minnesota -1.5 (-125) vs Detroit (+105)Detroit17-3
6Philadelphia -1.5 (-125) vs New York Giants (+105)Philadelphia27-0
8Tampa Bay -1.5(-120) vs Minnesota (+110)Minnesota19-13
8Philadelphia -1 (-115) vs Arizona (-105)Arizona24-20
9Dallas -1.5 (-120) vs Arizona (+110)Arizona28-17
10Buffalo -1.5 (-125) vs Kansas City (+110)Kansas City17-13
11Seattle -1 (-115) vs Kansas City (-105)Kansas City24-20
13San Francisco -1.5 (-125) vs Seattle (+105)Seattle19-3
13Arizona -1.5 (-120) vs Atlanta (+110)Atlanta29-18
14Seattle -1.5 (-125) vs Philadelphia (+105)Seattle24-14
16San Francisco -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+110)San Diego38-35
17New York Giants -1 (-120) vs Philadelphia (100)Philadelphia34-26

2015 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1189-8-19
-1.541-33

2015 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Kansas City -1 (-115) vs Houston (+105)Kansas City27-20
2Buffalo -1 (-120) vs New England (100) New England40-32
2Tennessee -1 (-115) vs Cleveland (-105)Cleveland28-14
3St. Louis -1 (-120) vs Pittsburgh (100)Pittsburgh12-6
3Baltimore -1.5 (-120) vs Cincinnati (+110)Cincinnati28-24
3Miami -1 (-120) vs Buffalo (100)Buffalo41-14
5Tampa Bay -1 (-120) vs Jacksonville (100)Tampa Bay38-31
5Buffalo -1 (-115) vs Tennessee (-105)Buffalo14-13(PUSH)
7Detroit -1 (-120) vs Minnesota (100)Minnesota28-19
8Minnesota -1.5 (-125) vs Chicago (+105)Minnesota23-20
9Minnesota -1 (-120) vs St. Louis (100)Minnesota21-18
10Dallas -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (100)Tampa Bay10-6
10New Orleans -1 (-120) vs Washington (100)Washington47-14
11Oakland -1.5 (-120) vs Detroit (+110)Detroit18-13
12Carolina -1 (-120) vs Dallas (100)Carolina33-14
12New York Giants -1.5 (-120) vs Washington (+110)Washington20-14
12Oakland -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Oakland24-21
14Cincinnati -1 (-120)  vs Pittsburgh (100)Pittsburgh33-20
14Philadelphia -1 (-120) vs Buffalo (100)Philadelphia23-20
14Jacksonville -1 (-120) vs Indianapolis (100)Jacksonville51-16
15St Louis -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (100)St. Louis31-23
15San Diego -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)San Diego14-3

2016 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-11810-6-26
-1.555-00

2016 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1 Cincinnati -1 (-105) vs NY Jets (-105)Cincinnati23-22
1 NY Giants -1 (-115) vs Dallas (-105)NY Giants20-19
2 Houston -1 (-115) vs Kansas City (-105)Houston19-12
3 New England -1 (-115) vs Houston (-105)New England27-0
3 Oakland -1.5 (-125) vs Tennessee (+105)Oakland 17-10
3 Indianapolis -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)Indianapolis26-22
4 Indianapolis -1 (-115) vs Jacksonville (-105)Jacksonville30-27
4 Seattle -1 (-115) vs NY Jets (-105)Seattle 27-17
4 Dallas -1.5 (-125) vs San Francisco (+105)Dallas24-17
7 Washington -1 (-120) vs Detroit (+100)Detroit20-17
7 San Francisco -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (+100)Tampa Bay34-17
8Houston -1 (-120) vs Detroit (+100)Houston 20-13
8 Seattle -1 (-120) vs New Orleans (+100)New Orleans25-20
9 Oakland -1 (-120) vs Denver (+100)Oakland30-20
10 Los Angeles -1 (-120) vs NY Jets (+100)Los Angeles 9-6
10 Philadelphia -1.5 (-145) vs Atlanta (+105)Philadelphia24-15
11 Miami -1 (-115) vs Los Angeles (+105)Miami14-10
12 Detroit -1.5 (-125) vs Minnesota (+100)Detroit16-13
13 San Francisco -1 (-120) vs Chicago (+100)Chicago26-6
13 NY Jets -1 (-120) vs Indianapolis (+100)Indianapolis 41-10
14 Carolina -1 (-120) vs San Diego (+100)Carolina28-16
16 Philadelphia -1 (-120) vs NY Giants (+100)Philadelphia24-19
17 Denver -1 (-120) vs Oakland (+100)Denver 24-6

2017 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1158-77
-1.596-33

2017 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1 Philadelphia -1.5 (-120) vs Washington (+110)Philadelphia30-17
2 Tennessee -1.5 (-118) vs Jacksonville (+108)Tennessee37-16
3Cleveland -1 (-105) vs Indianapolis (+105)Indianapolis31-28
3Tampa Bay -1 (-105) vs Minnesota (+105)Minnesota31-17
5 New York Jets -1.5 (-120) vs Cleveland (+110) New York17-14
5San Francisco -1 (-105) vs Indianapolis (+115)Indianapolis26-23
5Kansas City -1.5 (-120) vs Houston (+115) Kansas City42-34
6Los Angeles Rams -1 (-110) vs Jacksonville (+110)Los Angeles27-17
7Denver -1 (-110) vs San Diego (+110)San Diego21-0
8Carolina -1.5 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (+120)Carolina17-13
10New York Jets -1.5 (-115) vs Tampa Bay (+115)Tampa Bay15-10
10Minnesota -1 (-110) vs Washington (+110)Minnesota38-10
11Tampa Bay -1 (-105) vs Miami (+110)Tampa Bay30-20
11Minnesota -1.5 (-115) vs L.A. Rams (+115)Minnesota24-7
11Atlanta -1 (-110) vs Seattle (+110)Atlanta34-31
12L.A. Chargers -1 (-105) vs Dallas 9+105)L.A.28-6
13Denver -1 (-110) vs Miami (+110)Miami35-9
13Washington -1.5 (-115) vs Dallas (+110)Dallas38-14
14N.Y. Jets -1 (-110) vs Denver (+110)Denver23-0
14Houston -1.5 (-120) vs San Francisco (+120) S.F.26-16
14Philadelphia -1 (-110) vs L.A. Rams (+110)Philadelphia34-29
14Detroit -1 (-110) vs Tampa Bay (+105)Detroit24-21
15Kansas City -1 (-110) vs L.a. Chargers (+110)Kansas City30-13
15Seattle -1 (-110) vs L.A. Rams (+110)L.A.42-7

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