NFL Short Odds vs Money Line

As the 2017 NFL season gets closer and closer we have already started researching so that we can have our biggest money making season ever in 2017. We wanted to know what trends (if any) there were when the spread is 1 or 1.5. Usually if we like a game with a small line we just lay or take the point and move on. The question is should we be? How many times has one of these games pushed or how often a team won the game but didn’t cover as -1.5 favorite? There were other questions to be answered as well. How much more money could we have won if we just took the money line on short odds instead of taking the points? Meaning how many of these +1 or +1.5 dogs actually lose by just 1 point, where taking the points would of actually mattered? Another big question was how well are short money favorites doing considering Vegas pretty much has the game as a coin flip. We researched all regular season games the last 6 years where the lines closed at -1 or -1.5 and the closing money line also. The answers to all of our questions surprised us.

  • In the last 6 years there wasn’t one instance where a -1.5 favorite won the game by 1 and didn’t cover.
  • In the last 6 years there wasn’t one instance where a +1.5 dog lost the game by 1 point.
  • There were 43 games with a closing number of -1.5 and favorites went 20-23
  • The money line on those 23 underdog winners would of netted $220 for a $100 a game bettor and $2,220 for dime bettors.
  • There were 64 games that closed at -1 and only 5 pushed.
  • The favorites in those 82 games that ended -1 went 40-37-5
  • Out of the 82 games The underdog had a money line of 100-67 times, -105-6 times and +105-9 times
  • 9 favorites of -1 won by 3 points
  • When the dogs win it’s not as close with only 4 winning by 3 points or less out of 31 games

In conclusion we feel it is way more beneficial that if you’re going to take a short odds dog of +1 or +1.5 it’s probably wise to just take the money line. If you win that’s more money in your pocket and if you lose you’ll save money on the vig. Pushes in these instances are so rare that the chance of a 1 point bad beat is unlikely. Below you’ll find every game in the last 5 years with a closing line of 1 or 1.5, Who covered, straight up winner and score. Most likely you’ll find a game you bet on and can tell how the money line would of mattered.

 

2011 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1134-9-09
-1.585-3-03

2011 Game by Game (ATS Winner in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Baltimore -1 (-125) vs Pittsburgh (+105)Baltimore35-7
1Tampa Bay -1.5 (-125) vs Detroit (+105)Detroit 27-20
1Tennessee -1 (-120) vs Jacksonville (100)Jacksonville16-14
1New York Giants -1 (-120) vs Wash (100)Washington28-14
2Minnesota -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (+100)Tampa Bay24-20
2Cleveland -1.5 (-125) vs Indianapolis (+105)Cleveland27-19
3Cincinnati -1 (-120) vs San Fran (100)San Fran13-8
3Tampa Bay -1 (120) vs Atlanta (100)Tampa Bay16-13
4Cleveland -1.5 (-125) vs Tennessee (+105)Tennessee31-13
4New York Giants -1.5 (-120) vs Arizona (100)NYG31-27
5Indianapolis -1.5 (-125) vs Kansas City (+105)Kansas City28-24
7Chicago -1.5 (-125) vs Tampa Bay (+105)Chicago24-18
7San Diego -1 (-120) vs New York Jets (100)NYJ27-21
7Denver -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Denver18-15
8Cincinnati -1.5 (-125) vs Seattle (+105)Cincinnati34-12
9Arizona -1 (-120) vs St. Louis (100)Arizona19-13
10Atlanta -1 (-120) vs New Orleans (100)New Orleans26-23
11Cleveland -1.5 (-125) vs Jacksonville (+105)Cleveland14-10
13Buffalo -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Tennessee23-17
13Minnesota -1 (-120) vs Denver (100)Denver35-32
15Baltimore -1 (-120) vs San Diego (100)San Diego34-14

2012 By The Numbers (ATS Winner in Bold)

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1114-6-17
-1.571-6-06

2012 Game By Game

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Oakland -1 (-120) vs San Diego (100)San Diego22-14
2Oakland -1.5 (-130) vs Miami (+110)Miami35-13
5Arizona -1.5 (-125) vs St. Louis (+105)St. Louis17-3
6Cincinnati -1.5 (-130) vs Cleveland (+110)Cleveland34-24
7Indianapolis -1 (-120) vs Cleveland (100)Indianapolis17-13
7Pittsburgh -1.5 (-125) vs Cincinnati (+105)Pittsburgh24-17
8New York Jets -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Miami30-9
8 Kansas City -1 (-120) vs Oakland (100)Oakland26-16
9Oakland -1.5 (-125) vs Tampa Bay (+105)Tampa Bay42-32
10Chicago -1 (-120) vs Houston (100)Houston13-6
11Tampa Bay -1 (-120) vs Carolina (100)Tampa Bay27-21
12Pittsburgh -1 (-120) vs Cleveland (100)Cleveland20-14
12Atlanta -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (100)Atlanta24-23(PUSH)
12Baltimore -1 (-120) vs San Diego (100)Baltimore16-13
12Arizona -1.5 (-125) vs St Louis (+105)St. Louis31-17
14 Chicago -1.5 (-125) vs Minnesota (+105)Minnesota21-14
15Atlanta -1 (-120) vs New York Giants (100)Atlanta34-0
15New York Jets -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Tennessee14-10

2013 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-11511-4-04
-1.575-2-02

2013 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
3Baltimore -1 (-120) vs Houston (100)Baltimore30-9
3Detroit -1 (-120) vs Washington (100)Detroit27-20
4Seattle -1.5 (-125) vs Houston (+105)Seattle23-20
5New Orleans -1 (-120) vs Chicago (100)New Orleans26-18
5Philadelphia -1 (-125) vs New York Giants (+105)Philadelphia36-21
6Pittsburgh -1.5 (-125) vs New York Jets (+105)Pittsburgh19-6
6Indianapolis -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)San Diego19-9
7Chicago -1 (-120) vs Washington (100)Washington45-41
9Washington -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)Washington30-24
9Oakland -1 (-120) vs Philadelphia (100)Philadelphia49-20
9Baltimore -1.5 (-130) vs Cleveland (110)Cleveland24-18
10Philadelphia -1 (-120) vs Green Bay (100)Philadelphia27-13
10Baltimore -1 (-120) vs Cincinnati (100)Baltimore20-17
10Detroit -1 (-120) vs Chicago (100)Detroit21-19
12Denver -1 (-120) vs New England (100)New England34-31
13Minnesota -1 (-120) vs Chicago (100)Minnesota23-20
13Wash -1 (-120) vs New York Giants (100)New York Giants24-17
14Chicago -1.5 (-125) vs Dallas (+105)Chicago45-28
15Chicago -1 (-115) vs Cleveland (-105)Chicago38-31
16Buffalo -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Buffalo19-0
16Pittsburgh -1 (-120) vs Green Bay (100)Pittsburgh38-31
16New England -1 (-120) vs Baltimore (100)New England41-7

2014 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-172-4-14
-1.5123-99

2014 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Baltimore -1 (-115) vs Cincinnati (-105)Cincinnati23-16
2Carolina -1.5 (-120) vs Detroit (100)Carolina24-7
2Buffalo -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)Buffalo29-10
3New York Giants -1 (-120) vs Houston (100)NYG30-17
3New York Jets -1.5 (-125) vs Chicago (+105)Chicago27-19
4New York Jets -1.5 (-125) vs Detroit (+105)Detroit24-17
5Cleveland -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Cleveland29-28(PUSH)
6Minnesota -1.5 (-125) vs Detroit (+105)Detroit17-3
6Philadelphia -1.5 (-125) vs New York Giants (+105)Philadelphia27-0
8Tampa Bay -1.5(-125) vs Minnesota (+105)Minnesota19-13
8Philadelphia -1 (-115) vs Arizona (-105)Arizona24-20
9Dallas -1.5 (-125) vs Arizona (+105)Arizona28-17
10Buffalo -1.5 (-125) vs Kansas City (+105)Kansas City17-13
11Seattle -1 (-115) vs Kansas City (-105)Kansas City24-20
13San Francisco -1.5 (-125) vs Seattle (+105)Seattle19-3
13Arizona -1.5 (-125) vs Atlanta (+105)Atlanta29-18
14Seattle -1.5 (-125) vs Philadelphia (+105)Seattle24-14
16San Francisco -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)San Diego38-35
17New York Giants -1 (-120) vs Philadelphia (100)Philadelphia34-26

2015 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-1189-8-19
-1.541-33

2015 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1Kansas City -1 (-115) vs Houston (+105)Kansas City27-20
2Buffalo -1 (-120) vs New England (100) New England40-32
2Tennessee -1 (-115) vs Cleveland (-105)Cleveland28-14
3St. Louis -1 (-120) vs Pittsburgh (100)Pittsburgh12-6
3Baltimore -1.5 (-125) vs Cincinnati (+105)Cincinnati28-24
3Miami -1 (-120) vs Buffalo (100)Buffalo41-14
5Tampa Bay -1 (-120) vs Jacksonville (100)Tampa Bay38-31
5Buffalo -1 (-115) vs Tennessee (-105)Buffalo14-13(PUSH)
7Detroit -1 (-120) vs Minnesota (100)Minnesota28-19
8Minnesota -1.5 (-125) vs Chicago (+105)Minnesota23-20
9Minnesota -1 (-120) vs St. Louis (100)Minnesota21-18
10Dallas -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (100)Tampa Bay10-6
10New Orleans -1 (-120) vs Washington (100)Washington47-14
11Oakland -1.5 (-125) vs Detroit (+105)Detroit18-13
12Carolina -1 (-120) vs Dallas (100)Carolina33-14
12New York Giants -1.5 (-125) vs Washington (+105)Washington20-14
12Oakland -1 (-120) vs Tennessee (100)Oakland24-21
14Cincinnati -1 (-120)  vs Pittsburgh (100)Pittsburgh33-20
14Philadelphia -1 (-120) vs Buffalo (100)Philadelphia23-20
14Jacksonville -1 (-120) vs Indianapolis (100)Jacksonville51-16
15St Louis -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (100)St. Louis31-23
15San Diego -1 (-120) vs Miami (100)San Diego14-3

2016 By The Numbers

LineGamesFavorite ATSDogs Wins Outright
-11810-6-26
-1.555-00

2016 Game By Game (ATS Winners in Bold)

WeekGameWinnerFinal Score
1 Cincinnati -1 (-105) vs NY Jets (-105)Cincinnati23-22
1 NY Giants -1 (-115) vs Dallas (-105)NY Giants20-19
2 Houston -1 (-115) vs Kansas City (-105)Houston19-12
3 New England -1 (-115) vs Houston (-105)New England27-0
3 Oakland -1.5 (-125) vs Tennessee (+105)Oakland 17-10
3 Indianapolis -1.5 (-125) vs San Diego (+105)Indianapolis26-22
4 Indianapolis -1 (-115) vs Jacksonville (-105)Jacksonville30-27
4 Seattle -1 (-115) vs NY Jets (-105)Seattle 27-17
4 Dallas -1.5 (-125) vs San Francisco (+105)Dallas24-17
7 Washington -1 (-120) vs Detroit (+100)Detroit20-17
7 San Francisco -1 (-120) vs Tampa Bay (+100)Tampa Bay34-17
8Houston -1 (-120) vs Detroit (+100)Houston 20-13
8 Seattle -1 (-120) vs New Orleans (+100)New Orleans25-20
9 Oakland -1 (-120) vs Denver (+100)Oakland30-20
10 Los Angeles -1 (-120) vs NY Jets (+100)Los Angeles 9-6
10 Philadelphia -1.5 (-145) vs Atlanta (+105)Philadelphia24-15
11 Miami -1 (-115) vs Los Angeles (+105)Miami14-10
12 Detroit -1.5 (-125) vs Minnesota (+100)Detroit16-13
13 San Francisco -1 (-120) vs Chicago (+100)Chicago26-6
13 NY Jets -1 (-120) vs Indianapolis (+100)Indianapolis 41-10
14 Carolina -1 (-120) vs San Diego (+100)Carolina28-16
16 Philadelphia -1 (-120) vs NY Giants (+100)Philadelphia24-19
17 Denver -1 (-120) vs Oakland (+100)Denver 24-6

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