Saturday’s Top CFB Handicapper Pick Navy VS Notre Dame

Today’s Top College Football Handicapper Free Betting Pick

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Today’s Top College Football Handicapper Free Pick

Jack Jones

Nov 18 ’17, 3:30 PM
NCAA-F | Navy vs Notre Dame

Play on: Navy +18 -110 at betonline

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Navy +18

I certainly question Notre Dame’s motivation this week after they came up woefully short in their ‘game of the year’ last week at Miami.  They lost 41-8 to the Hurricanes in a complete no-show.  Had they won that game, they would have been in line to make the four-team playoff.  But now those dreams are crushed, and it’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face a pesky Navy team this week.

This is a Navy team that will fight you for four quarters, and I’m not sure Notre Dame will be ready for that kind of fight.  This is one of many great Navy teams under Ken Niumatalolo, who would have a bigger job elsewhere by now if he didn’t love it at Navy so much.  His players certainly go to war for him every week.

The Midshipmen have gone 6-3 this season, and they were competitive in all three losses.  They only lost 27-30 at Memphis as 3.5-point dogs, lost 21-31 at UCF as 10-point dogs, and lost 26-34 at Temple as 6-point favorites.  Memphis is 8-1 this season, UCF is 9-0, and Temple is playing its best football of the year.

Following those three consecutive losses, Navy bounced back with a 43-40 win over an upstart SMU team.  I think the fact that that final score was close is keeping this line higher than it should be.  But it really wasn’t as close as the final score as Navy led 34-11 at halftime and outgained the Mustangs by 133 yards.  The Midshipmen rushed for a whopping 559 yards in the win.

Both teams love rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, which will help shorten the game and keep Navy in it.  Navy averages 370 rushing yards per game while Notre averages 303.  But it’s worth nothing that the Fighting Irish’s leading rusher Josh Adams got hurt against Miami last week and may not be at 100%. That puts even more pressure on shaky QB Brandon Wimbush and the Notre Dame offense.

Navy has been decent at stopping the run, giving up 166 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry against teams that average 212 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, holding them to 46 yards per game less than their season averages.  Notre Dame is only holding opponents to 35 rushing yards per game less than their season averages.  The weakness of Navy’s defense is through the air, but Notre Dame won’t be able to exploit it because they only average 52% completions and 168 passing yards per game.

Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games after trailing its previous game by 17 points or more at halftime.  The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last two seasons.

Each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less.  Navy has only lost twice in the last 10 meetings to Notre Dame by more than 17 points.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to South Bend.  Bet Navy Saturday.

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