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CFB Free Pick UCLA VS Oregon

Larry Ness

Nov 03 ’18, 3:00 PM
NCAA-F | UCLA vs Oregon

Play on: Oregon -10 -106 at pinnacle

My free play is on Oregon at 7:30 ET.

Think Chip Kelly regrets leaving Oregon back in 2013? His NFL stay was a disaster and his return to the Pac-12 (with UCLA) has been pretty sad. Kelly’s Oregon teams went 46-7 in four years but his three-year NFL stay in Philly ended with him being fired after 15 games of the 2015 season. The 49ers grabbed him and San Fran wet 2-14. Now, back in the college ranks with UCLA, the Bruins opened 0-5 for the first time since 1943. UCLA (2-6 / 2-3 Pac-12) visits Autzen Stadium on Saturday, coming off its worst home loss (41-10) in eight years against Utah on Oct 26. The Ducks came into last weekend ranked 19th in the AP poll but were dismantled 44-15 at Arizona on last Saturday. It was Oregon’s second straight loss, as the Ducks fell to 5-3, including just 2-3 in Pac-12 play (matching UCLA’s league mark).

The QB situation at UCLA may have cleared up this week. Senior graduate transfer Wilton Speight (Michigan) won the starting job out of camp and started the season opener against Cincinnati but was unable to finish the 26-17 loss because of a back injury. Dorian Thompson-Robinson started the next six games and appeared to be finding his groove when he went down with an injury in a 31-30 win against visiting Arizona on Oct. 20. However, Speight practiced with the first team on Wednesday after starting against Utah, leading many to believe he’ll start again this week. However, UCLA is 119th in scoring( 21.2 PPG) and 116th in total yards (346.1 YPG). The defense is allowing 32.5 PPG (97th) on 431.8 YPG (94th)

Three different RBs for the Ducks have posted 100-yard rushing performances this season but none seem to be able to fill the roll of “featured” back. The running game averages a middle-of-the-road 175.8 YPG (63rd). QB Herbert has 20 TDs and just six INTs for an offense which averages 36.6 PPG (25th) on 437.8 YPG (43rd). Oregon picked up a huge win in their last home game against Washington but has looked like a different team, since with back to back lackluster performances against Washington State and Arizona.

Will Chip Kelly’s return to Eugene end well? I think not. Oregon is 4-1 at home, averaging 43.2 PPG. The Bruins are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Good luck…Larry