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Which NFL Teams Are Making Or Losing You Money

Many bettors have a few teams in their head that they think are money. The public have a few teams they know win 12-13 games a year and they think they are going to cover every single week. For many it’s the Denver Broncos (37-11 last 3 years), New England Patriots (36-12), or the Seattle Seahawks (35-13) These three teams are in the positive numbers when it comes to units won but not by as much as you would think from those gaudy straight up records. The public should actually be looking to bet against the teams they know are bad more than teams they know are good. We looked at the NFL ATS records the last 3 years and found some more interesting things to be true. The most interesting thing we found is there are only 11 teams that are in positive numbers when it comes to +/- betting units. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

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  • Only 11 of 32 teams have a +units gained last 3 years (34%)
  • 7 teams have more than -1000 units compared to only 3 with more than +1000
  • Every team in the top 10 has made the playoffs at least once in the last 3 years. Cincinnati, Seattle, Carolina, Denver and New England all 3 years, Arizona, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Kansas City 2 apiece and the #1 team Minnesota only 1 time (last season)
  • Of the 7 teams with -1000 or more in units only two have made the playoffs in the last 3 years (Detroit 2014 and Washington 2015)
  • Of the teams that are negative units only Green Bay made the playoffs all 3 years. None made it twice. (nine out of the 21 made it once and 11 have no playoff berths last 3 years)
  • Every starting quarterback for the Top 10 teams have made the Pro Bowl at least once in the last 3 years and all were the opening day starter all 3 years except Teddy Bridgewater (drafted in 2014 and started 12 games year 1)

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