Betting The 2016 NFL Win Totals

The NFL Draft and offseason workouts are over. The teams know who they are taking to training camp, except for some still unsigned free agents here and there. Everyone pretty much has an idea what teams are going to look like come kickoff weekend (except the bottom of the rosters) So now is a good of time to start betting the 2016 NFL win totals. Win totals are our favorite offseason bets to make do to the excellent chance to make some serious money. Obviously it’s not as easy most people think or everyone would be getting rich from futures bets. When the books lay a number they pretty much have an idea which way the public is going to lean so they juice up that side. If they think the public wants to take the Over on a certain team they are going to make you pay for it if you lose, with some teams getting as high a -160 one way or the other.

You definitely have to do your research and know what to look for when it comes to NFL totals. Even though NFL fans and bettors know the NFL strives for parity the mistake the public makes is taking way too way much stock in what they saw the previous season. Obviously previous seasons are important with about 8 teams returning to the playoffs each year, but it’s not everything. You have to definitely look at things like schedule, player departures/additions (including free agents, players who were injured last year and draft picks) and we like to also look at other things like turnover margin and close wins/losses from a year ago. Let’s look at each teams win total and gave our opinions before you place your wager. These are our Early Picks. Some of these will change in the next 2 months. The numbers below are courtesy of Bovada. To see updated odds or place a wager Click here

Arizona Cardinals Season Wins

2015 Record – 13-3

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records 2015 Win Pct
T-7
136-120 .531
The Arizona Cardinals look to get back to The NFC championship in 2016. Despite losing 2 offensive line starters and 3 defensive starters, all the pieces are there for another playoff bound season. Playing the NFC South, the Jets, Dolphins and Rams/49ers twice should get them 10+ wins. Leaning Over despite the heavy juice. Our Early Pick- Over 9.5

Atlanta Falcons Season Wins

2015 Record8-8

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-1
142-114 .555
The Falcons couldn’t turn their cream puff 2015 schedule into more than 8 wins. This year they are in some serious trouble right out of the gate. After a toss up opener vs the Bucs they play @Oakland, @Saints, Carolina, @Denver, @Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay. Then they still have Arizona and Kansas City after the bye. A tough schedule with not enough firepower to overcome it. Our Early Pick- Under 7.5

Baltimore Ravens Season Wins

2015 Record5-11

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-19
124-132 .484
Baltimore had a rare down year in 2015 due to injuries all across the board. They look to bounce back in 2016. They added a couple retreads in TE Benjamin Watson and WR Mike Wallace on offense. Eric Weddle comes in on defense with plenty of gas left in the tank. They also drafted tackle Ronnie Stanley who should be a franchise left tackle. Most importantly though is a healthy Joe Flacco and Steve Smith. Our Early Pick- Over 8.5

Buffalo Bills Season Wins

2015 Record 8-8

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
10
133-123 .520
The Bills underachieved in many eyes last year. Injuries piled up to some key players though. Tyrod Taylor missed 2 games Lesean Mccoy missed 4, Sammy Watkins 3 and so on and so on. Rex Ryan brought in his brother Rob to help out this season and we think it will. Look for Tyrod’s turnovers to come down while the defense creates more and a healthier Bills team will get over the hump and make the playoffs in 2016. Our Early Pick- Over 8

Carolina Panthers Season Wins

2015 Record15-1

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
12
131-125 .512
We know one thing, Carolina won’t win 15 games again. The Panthers will have a much tougher schedule in 2016 playing the NFC and AFC West. That means 4 road trips to the west coast. They think Josh Norman was a product of the system and released him. only time will tell if that was smart. 3 things we do know. Cam is REALLY good, Kelvin Benjamin is back and the NFC South is weak so we think they take the division and win 11 games even with a Super Bowl loss hangover. Our Early Pick- Over 10.5

Chicago Bears Season Wins

2015 Record6-10

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-30
118-138 .461
The Bears are a trendy pick to go Over this season. They signed 10 free agents this off season attempting to over haul the roster, most importantly trying to upgrade the offensive line and the defense as a whole. They get the AFC South and NFC East this season so there could be a few wins in there. The problem is the NFC North is going to be brutal. If they get off to a fast start and beat The Texans and Eagles they could get to 8. We’re still leaning Under due to division schedule. Our Early Pick- Under 7.5

Cincinnati Bengals Season Wins

2015 Record12-4

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-27
119-137 .465
Cincinnati seems like a lock to many people to win over 10 games and get to the playoffs again. Not so fast. The Bengals lost receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in free agency and will not have Vontaze Burfict for the first 3 games. 4 of 1st 6 games are on the road- @Jets, @Steelers, Broncos, Dolphins, @Cowboys, @Patriots. The Bengals might not have a chance to get that elusive playoff win this year. Our Early Pick- Under 9.5

Cleveland Browns Season Wins

2015 Record3-13

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
21
123-133 .480
Oh Cleveland. When is it going to turn around? The Browns are going with Robert Griffin at quarterback and drafted speedy Baylor receiver Corey Coleman to help him whom we love. They also signed a few defensive pieces to help on that side of the ball. The most important move in our opinion is Hue Jackson becoming head coach and cleaning house on the coaching staff. We know The Browns love changing coaches but this one might just work. We think 5 wins are good bet. Our Early Pick- Over 4.5

Dallas Cowboys Season Wins

2015 Record4-12

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-27
119-137 .465
The Cowboys were SB contenders a year ago until Romo went down. Drafting Ezekiel Elliott and signing Alfred Morris shows the Cowboys are looking to get back to their running ways of 2014. Let’s face it though their one and only hope is for Romo to stay healthy this season. The Cowboys play the AFC and NFC North this season so they are going to need him. One more defensive lineman landing on that shoulder and it’s probably career over. This is a tough one but our gut tells us lean slightly Under. Our Early Pick- Under 9.5. 

Denver Broncos Season Wins

2015 Record12-4

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
14
129-127 .504
Vegas doesn’t think much about the defending champs’ prospects with Mark Sanchez under center. The Broncos are going to run the ball and play defense in 2016 and what better QB to play in that offense than Sanchez who managed the game for 2 years with the Jets in 2009-2010 while the rest of the talent made playoff runs. The Broncos revamped the offensive line and C.J. Anderson and rookie Devontae Booker should see a ton of carries. This team should have enough defense for another playoff berth. Our Early Pick- Over 9

Detroit Lions Season Wins

2015 Record7-9

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-27
119-137 .465
The Lions signed 13 free agents, to try an upgrade the roster in the post Megatron era. They signed Marvin Jones, Andre Caldwell and Jeremy Kerley to play receiver with new number 1 Golden Tate. The offensive line should be better and there is plenty of talent on defense but there are serious questions on who will run the ball and how the receivers will be with Tate getting double teamed. Our Early Pick– Under 7

Green Bay Packers Season Wins

2015 Record10-6

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
32
117-139 .457
The Green Bay Packers have Aaron Rodgers which equals 10 wins. Jordy Nelson is back so give them 2 more. Vegas is making us pay for it at -165 but we’re not scared of this one. Our Early Pick – Over 10.5 

Houston Texans Season Wins

2015 Record9-7

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-19
124-132 .484
The surprise winner of the AFC South a year ago will try and defend it with a new QB in Brock Osweiler. Even though Osweiler is unproven he may well be an upgrade over Brian Hoyer and company. Arian Foster was let go in the offseason as Houston will go with former Dolphin Lamar Miller. The Defense will be good, but will it be good enough to overcome the tough schedule of the NFC North, the AFC West and the two other first place AFC teams (Patriots and Bengals)? The Houston Texans look like .500 team at best this year. Our Early Pick – Under 8.5

Indianapolis Colts Season Wins

2015 Record8-8

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
22
122-134 .477
Vegas is expecting The Colts to make a comeback, putting their number at 9.5. It really all depends on if Andrew Luck can make a comeback from his injury issue and his throwing it to the other team issue. We think last year was an aberration and we like the Colts to win 10 this year and win the Division. Our Early Pick– Over 9.5

Jacksonville Jaguars Season Wins

2015 Record5-11

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-23
121-135 .473
The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up at 7 and the sharp money immediately bet them up to 7.5. The money is still coming in on the Over so the juice is up to -150. Couple reasons for the optimism. Blake Bortles looks like he may have a break out season and has the weapons to do it. The receiving core is young and very talented and newly signed Chris Ivory will join forces with T.J. Yeldon to make a decent 1-2 punch behind an upgraded offensive line. Yup we’re on the bandwagon also. Our Early Pick– Over 7.5

Kansas City Chiefs Season Wins

2015 Record11-5

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
16
127-129 .496
The Kansas City Chiefs ended the 2015 regular season as the hottest team before they ran into the Patriots at Gillette. The Chiefs look to start the season on the right note so they can play games at home in January. Their defense and offensive weapons combined with an NFC and AFC South schedule makes us think they will wrestle away the AFC crown from the Broncos for the first time in 5 years. Our Early Pick– Over 9.5

Los Angeles Rams Season Wins

2015 Record – 7-9

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
3
141-115 .551
There will be a lot of excitement in LA when the Rams play this season. The defense will be very good again and Todd Gurley looks like he will be a top 5 back for a long time. The problem is Jared Goff will be the quarterback, playing in a tough division as a rookie. This is a tough one to call because Jeff Fisher just screams 8-8. Goff will have growing pains so we’re leaning Under. Our Early PickUnder 7.5

Miami Dolphins Season Wins

2015 Record6-10

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
11
132-124 .516
The Dolphins start over with new head coach Adam Gase who they hired to get Ryan Tannehill to the next level. They got the offensive steal of the draft with Laremy Tunsil to protect him. The problem on offense is the running backs cupboard is absolutely bare and teams will pin their ears back in an all out assault of Tannehill. On the other hand the Dolphins defense could be scary good with Mario Williams joining Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh on the line and Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell coming over from Philly. This team looks like they can win 8. Our Early Pick– Over 7

Minnesota Vikings Season Wins

2015 Record11-5

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
18
125-131 .488
The Vikings won the NFC North and should of knocked the Seahawks out in the Wild Card. They had to get Teddy Bridgewater more weapons and 1st round draft choice Laquon Treadwell should be a perfect compliment for Stefon Diggs. Adrian Petterson is a freak of nature unlike any back we’ve ever seen and should be among the best again despite his age. The entire defense which was fantastic a year ago returns and should be even better. Look for the Vikings to equal their win total from a year ago. Our Early Pick – Over 9.5

New England Patriots Season Wins

2015 Record12-4

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
9
134-122 .523
Is this the year the Pats finally take a step back? The answer unfortunately for the rest of the AFC East and their fans is NO. Tom Brady suspended for 4 games. Pats go 2-2. Tom Brady returns. Pats go 10-2. 12-4 record, AFC East Champs and a 1st round bye. Ho Hum. Our Early PickOver 10.5

New Orleans Saints Season Wins

2015 Record7-9

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
4
140-116 .547
The Saints are still in a weird spot that we’ve never really seen before. They have one of the top coaches and top quarterbacks and they still won’t be good. The receiving corps is not very good, the offensive line has holes and the defensive improvement will be minimal at best. Not to mention they are always much better at home than away and this year they have a tough out of division road schedule with trips to The Giants, Chargers, Chiefs, 49ers and Cardinals. Our Early Pick– Under 7.

New York Giants Season Wins

2015 Record 6-10

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-30
118-138 .461
The Giants have the quarterback to be successful, they have an all pro caliber number 1 receiver. A very good running back in Rashad Jennings and an above average line. They upgraded their defense with Janoris Jenkins and Olivier Vernon. These are reasons why a lot of people are on the Giants bandwagon. The Giants should of had a much better season a year ago as they lost 5 games by 3 points or less. If you believe in bad luck one season turning around the next then the Giants should win some close games which they failed to do a year ago. Our Early Pick– Over 8

New York Jets Season Wins

2015 Record10-6

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-7
136-120 .531
The Jets first 6 games are against Cincinnati, Buffalo, Kansas City, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Arizona, with 4 of those games on the road. After that they still look forward to 2 games against Brady, 2 against an improved Dolphins team, the Ravens, Colts and Bills again. They don’t have a QB for that schedule with or without Fitzpatrick. Our Early Pick– Under 8

Oakland Raiders Season Wins

2015 Record7-9

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
15
128-128 .500
The Raiders are another team that the sharps pounded when the numbers came out and were bet from 7.5 up to 8.5. For good reason…. Derek Carr looks like the real deal, he has the weapons and a very underrated offensive line. The defense will be improved after adding Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson along with other secondary help. With all that said the Raiders might still be a year away from competing for the AFC West crown. 9 games looks like too many for 2016. Our Early Pick– Under 8.5

Philadelphia Eagles Season Wins

2015 Record7-9

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
26
120-136 .469
The Eagles are in full rebuilding mode under coach Doug Pederson. They drafted Carson Wentz but the opening day starter will be Sam Bradford. If that isn’t bad enough he has no weapons to speak of and the defense looks lousy. This team has 3-13 or 4-12 written all over it. Our Early Pick– Under 7

Pittsburgh Steelers Season Wins

2015 Record10-6

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-23
121-135 .473
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a top 3 Qb, a top 3 RB (if he’s healthy) and maybe the best receiver in the game. They are definitely going to miss Martavis Bryant who is suspended for the season but the offense will still be scary good. The team shored up the defense with their first 3 draft picks going to that side of the ball. This team looks ready to challenge for the AFC crown. Our Early Pick– Over 10.5

San Diego Chargers Season Wins

2015 Record4-12

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
13
130-126 .508
San Diego is always a tricky team because Philip Rivers is phenomenal. They HOPE to have 1 season where the offensive line doesn’t resemble a mash unit. They HOPE Melvin Gordon has a bounce back year after a terrible rookie campaign. They HOPE the defensive improved despite losing their leader Eric Weddle. All this while playing in a division with the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders. That’s a lot of hope. Our Early Pick – Under 7

San Francisco 49ers Season Wins

2015 Record5-11

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-1
142-114 .555
The 49ers still believe in Chip Kelly and his coaching style. Blaine Gabbert has already pretty much won the starting job over Colin Kaepernick which is a shock since Kap seems like he fits that Oregon style offense more. The weapons cupboard isn’t bare with Carlos Hyde and Torrey Smith. Just don’t see how they will navigate their first 6 games that include Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Cardinals and Bills. Our Early PickUnder 5.5.

Seattle Seahawks Season Wins

2015 Record10-6

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-5
139-117 .543
The Seattle Seahawks underachieved last year and can’t be too happy that they were ousted in the divisional round. This season the talk will be a little muted about getting to the SB which will be a good thing. They still have all the pieces in place to win the division and their first 5 games against the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers, Jets and Falcons looks like a 5-0 start. Our Early Pick– Over 10.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Wins

2015 Record6-10

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-5
139-117 .543
The Bucs showed flashes last year with Jamies Winston of what the future holds. He looks like the real deal and will be way more comfortable this season. The offensive weapons looks to be there with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Doug Martin. The defense looks better with some free agent signings and drafting CB Vernon Hargreaves and DE Noah Spence with their first 2 picks. With the Saints and Falcons looking to be disasters, this team may be in the wild card hunt. Our Early PickOver 7.5

Tennessee Titans Season Wins

2015 Record3-13

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
T-23
121-135 .473
The Tennessee Titans look to improve in QB Marcus Mariotta’s second season and getting Demarco Murray from Philly will definitely help. The Titans need more wide receiver help and the defense still needs upgrading. They are the 4th best team in their division which means it could be another long season. 5 wins seems about right. Our Early Pick– Under 5.5.

Washington Redskins Season Wins

2015 Record9-7

Strength Of Schedule
NFL Rank
2015 Win/Loss Records2015 Win Pct
17
126-130 .492
The Washington Redskins are coming off a division title because they were the best of the 4 bad teams in their division. Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson are very good receivers and the defense looks improved especially with Josh Norman. But does anyone really believe Kirk Cousins will have the same success in year 2 as a starter with a much tougher schedule that includes playing the AFC and NFC North. We don’t think so. Our Early PickUnder 7.5.
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