NFL Final Four Betting AFC

NFL Final Four Betting

After 264 NFL regular season and playoff games it all comes down to 4. New England travels to Denver in The AFC Championship and Arizona travels to Carolina for The NFC Crown. Let’s take a quick look at The AFC Championship.

AFC Championship: New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos O/U 44

In the AFC Divisional Playoff round The Patriots looked like they hadn’t missed a beat from their early season offensive domination. Getting back Julian Edelman and Danny Amandola proved too much for the Kansas City Chiefs as they built a 21-6 lead and coasted to the 27-20 victory. On the other side of the bracket The Denver Broncos and The Pittsburgh Steelers played an ugly low scoring game as fierce winds played right into the Broncos game plan to run the ball and play defense. Denver was content to kick field goals and wait for Pittsburgh to make a mistake which came in the 4th quarter with a Pittsburgh fumble that led to a Denver lead they would never relinquish.

Sunday’s game will be played in Denver instead of New England due to The Patriots injuries late in the season and what most people believe was Bill Belichek’s conservative approach in the final 2 games in losses to the Jets and Dolphins. Some believe The Pats plan was to stay healthy first and foremost and not worry about the 1 seed because they did not fear going to Denver in the championship. If that was the plan it wasn’t a smart one because playing in Denver is going to be no easy task for the Patriots. Tom Brady is 2-6 all time in Denver with his only 2 wins coming against Danny Kanell and Tim Tebow at quarterback. The weather report probably favors The Broncos with kickoff temps around 45 degrees. Everyone knows that Manning doesn’t fare well in frigid games and this plays perfectly into the Broncos offensive game plan to run and play action pass. The Broncos were underdogs 4 times this season going 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS. The Pats went 5-3 on the road this season but only 3-5 ATS. When the Patriots were healthy in the first 2 months of season they were 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS and averaging 35 points a game and cruising towards a 2nd straight Super Bowl. The second half of the season has been a different story. In their last 9 games the Pats are 5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS and averaging 24 points a game. Everyone is going to concentrate on Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning but that is not the match up of the game. Tom Brady vs The Denver defense will tell the real outcome of the game. The Broncos haven’t given up over 20 points at home since November and only twice this season. Look for The Broncos Defense to pressure Brady all day in front of a raucous crowd and turn The Patriots over a couple times on their way to a 24-17 victory and one last chance for Peyton Manning to snag ring number 2.     THE PICK Broncos +3 UNDER 44


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