Week 3 College Football Betting Preview (With Free Pick)

Each Week at RTHH we will run through some important games on the schedule. We will give reasons each team can cover. We also will release a RTHH Free pick as well as at least one from a Hot Handicapper.

Week 3 College Football Betting Preview (With Free Pick)

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES @ LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
12:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
TeamsWin-LossStreakOpenCurrentSpreadMoneyO/U
Florida St(2-0) (0-0 A)W-263.0-1.569%69%94%
Louisville(2-0) (1-0 H)W-2-16831%31%6%

 

Florida St

Last Week: Florida State pounded cupcake Charleston Southern 52-8 at home. FSU did not cover the 59.5 point spread and there was no total posted on the game.

This Season: Florida St is 2-0 Straight Up and 1-1 Against The Spread. The Total has gone 1-0.

Why Florida St Can Cover The Spread

  1.  Deondre Francis will test the Louisville secondary like they have yet to be tested all season. This dude looks like the real deal completing 70 percent of his passes this young season. The Louisville secondary looks like the weak link on defense and FSU receivers Travis Rudolph and Jesus Wilson are dangerous against anyone. Expect a lot of passing yards for Francis including throwing check downs to Dalvin Cook go for first downs.
  2. If anyone in the ACC has the defensive speed to contain Louisville QB Lamar Jackson and stop him from running all over the field it’s Florida State’s. Louisville’s offense will have to prove they can move the ball without Jackson rattling off 20+ yard runs.

 

Louisville

Last Week: Louisville went on the road and raced past Syracuse 62-28. Louisville covered as 17 point favorites and the total went OVER 69.

This Season: Louisville is 2-0 Straight Up and 2-0 Against The Spread. The Total Is 2-0

Why Louisville Can Cover The Spread

  1. In Week 1 Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly torched the FSU secondary for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has been the most dynamic player in this young football season, throwing for 700 yards and 7 touchdowns while rushing for 318 yards and 6 scores. FSU will have to spy Jackson to keep him in the pocket and that’s one less player who can drop back in coverage. It could be another long night for Florida State’s secondary. 
  2. When facing Florida State’s offense your number 1 priority has to be to stop FSU running Dalvin Cook. Louisville’s front 7 could be up to the task. They have 3 linebackers (all returning starters) who can be very disruptive to the running game. Louisville will stack the box and hope to hold Cook in check. 

RideTheHotHand LEAN: Louisville +1.5    

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OHIO STATE BUCKEYES @ OKLAHOMA SOONERS
7:30 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
TeamsWin-LossStreakOpenCurrentSpreadMoneyO/U
Ohio State(2-0) (0-0 A)W-264.5-1.579%76%78%
Oklahoma(1-1) (1-0 H)W-1-163.521%24%22%

 

Ohio State

Last Week: Ohio State had another walk in the park last week beating Tulsa 48-3 at home. The Buckeyes covered the 28 point spread and the total went UNDER 79.5

This Season: Ohio State is 2-0 Straight Up and  2-0 Against The Spread. The Total Is 1-1

Why Ohio State Can Cover The Spread

  1.  This is finally JT Barrett’s team without question and he has been waiting for this. Barrett can beat you with his arm as well as his incredible speed. Going on the road for their first big test of the season, it’s good to have a QB who’s been in big games before and can make something positive happen when the play breaks down.
  2. Ohio State’s defense has been stellar this season (yes we know against 2 mid majors) but if you have played 2 games against FBS schools and haven’t given up a touchdown it means the coaches have these guys ready to play. Ohio State’s defense is not thinking and just flying around making plays and causing turnovers. It’s going to take some turnovers to win Saturday. 

 

Oklahoma

Last Week: After losing in week 1, Oklahoma took out their frustration on Louisiana Monroe winning 59-17. OU failed to cover the 46 point spread and the game went OVER 63.5

This Season: OU is 1-1 Straight Up and 0-2 Against The Spread. The Total Is 1-1

Why Oklahoma Can Cover The Spread

  1. STOP THE RUN! Oklahoma’s defensive line and linebackers have been BEASTS thus far shutting down the running games of Houston and Louisiana Monroe. Ohio State’s Mike Webber and the offensive line have punched 2 undersized inferior opponents in the mouth but lets see what they do when they get punched back by Oklahoma.
  2. Ohio State’s young defense has had a cushy start to the season and they are reading their own press clippings. They’ve played 2 mid majors at home and in our opinion aren’t as good as they think. Some OSU defensive players have even said they expect to continue the No TD streak Saturday. Going on the road to Norman against a very good Sooner offense led by Baker Mayfield is going to be tough sledding and now Stoops has the bulletin board material to fire his offensive line up even more. 

Final Analysis and RideTheHotHand Free Pick: This game is EVERYTHING for the Oklahoma Sooners. Due to their early loss to Houston, if they lose this game their season is OVER. Ohio State is young on both sides of the ball, only returning a total of 6 starters from a year ago. This is going to be a wake up call for them. Expect OU’s defense to shut down The Buckeye running game and put Barrett in 3rd and long all night where he doesn’t excel. The OU offense will control the clock and run the ball with enough success to move the chains and keep the Ohio St offense off the field. Look for a low scoring game that Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma pull out in the end. The Pick: Oklahoma money line. We also like this game to go UNDER 63.5

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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE @ MISSISSIPPI REBELS
3:30 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
TeamsWin-LossStreakOpenCurrentSpreadMoneyO/U
Alabama(2-0) (0-0 A)W-2-8.5-1180%35%72%
Mississippi(1-1) (1-0 H)W-154.054.520%65%28%

 

Alabama

Last Week: Alabama had an easy week beating Western Kentucky 38-10. Bama covered as 27 point favorites. The total went UNDER 60.

This Season: Alabama is 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread. The total is 1-1

 

Ole Miss

Last Week: Ole Miss beat Wofford 38-13. Ole Miss failed to cover the 44 point spread and the game went UNDER 56.5

This Season: Ole Miss is 1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread. The total is 1-1

Free Pick By Handicapper Brad Diamond

Sep 17 ’16, 3:30 PM 
NCAA-F | Alabama vs Ole Miss
Play on: Alabama -10½ -106 at pinnacle
Game Analysis

Alabama over Ole Miss @ 3:30 Eastern

With Mississippi winning at Alabama last year 43-37 in a real shootout, coach Nick Saban sets up in a rare double-revenge situation for the Crimson Tide.  Last week Alabama crushed Western Kentucky 38-10 holding the Hilltoppers to 239 yards of total offense (23 on the ground).  Mississippi ripped up FCS Wofford 38-13.  Don’t get too excited about the 233 yards on the ground accrued by Wofford, they have “NO” passing attack.  Ole Miss lost game #1 of the season to Florida State 45-34.  The Sems went on a 30-0 run to silence the Rebels, and forged redshirt frosh QB Francois (33-52, 419) into the national limelight. 

This week the Crimson Tide will need to ride the running game a little more than last week keeping the Ole Miss offense and QB Kelly on the sideline.  On the technical side, Alabama is 21-14 ATS in road sets, while the Rebels are 18-16 ATS at home, but they did have a 4-2 ATS mark last year with covers versus Fresno State, New Mexico State, Texas A&M and LSU.   Ole Miss is 21-7 SU at home with just 2 losses over the last two years against Arkansas and Auburn.  As we now understand, Saban just reloads every season with 4* and 5* recruits waiting in the wings to fill out the starting lineup.  With this unit having the best passing attack potential for Alabama in some time, I am looking for a high scoring game.  Make it Alabama 46 Ole Miss 27. 

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