Friday 9/30 Free College Football Betting Pick New Mexico vs UNLV


Friday CFB Free play. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over UNLV at 11 pm et on Friday.

New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 drubbing at the hands of LSU in Baton Rouge last Saturday but still checks in an even 2-2 on the season. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time UNLV defeated New Mexico by more than 14 points and I don’t see it happening here either. There’s a path for the Lobos to effectively shorten this game by pounding away with a ground game that is capable of having a big game. We saw UNM essentially abandon the run in last week’s blowout loss but it is just one game removed from gaining 188 yards on 45 rush attempts in a 27-10 win over UTEP. You can move the football on this UNLV defense. The Runnin’ Rebels gave up 24 points in last week’s win over Utah State, despite a +5 turnover differential. In fact, they’ve allowed 20+ points in all four games this season. Of course, the Lobos will need to stop or at least slow down the Rebels offense. I believe they can. Even in last week’s 38-0 loss, New Mexico allowed a touchdown just over five minutes into the first quarter but then held the Tigers out of the end zone until the final seconds of the first half. Three games back against Boise State, the Lobos didn’t allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter and then kept the Broncos offense out of the end zone until the opening minute of the fourth quarter. Here, we’ll note that UNLV is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games after winning two of its previous three contests, as is the case here, outscored by 9.5 points on average in that situation. Take New Mexico.

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